Estimate your IPO allotment chance from retail subscription times. Calculate probability per application and across multiple PAN applications.
Approximate chance of at least one lot = 1 − (1 − 1 ÷ times subscribed) ^ number of applicationsThe result is shown as a percentageWhy didn't I get IPO allotment is asked after every oversubscribed issue. The answer is SEBI's lottery: when retail applications exceed available lots, a computerised draw picks winners with a minimum one lot each. Your base chance is roughly one divided by the subscription multiple, so 12x means about 8% per application.
Adding applications multiplies chances the honest way: the tool compounds per-application probability across PANs and shows expected successes. Extra lots inside one retail application do not help (still one lot max), and NII works differently with proportionate allotment instead of a lottery.
After the basis is finalised (usually 1 working day post-close under T+3), check status on the registrar (Link Intime or KFintech) or BSE and NSE pages with your PAN, then track listing gains on our Listing Performance page.
Divide 1 by the retail subscription multiple: at 12x subscription your chance is roughly 1 ÷ 12 ≈ 8.3% per application. With multiple PAN applications the chances compound (1 − (1 − p)^n), which this calculator works out for you. NII allotment is proportionate, not lottery, so this maths applies to retail only.
When an IPO is oversubscribed in the retail category, allotment is done via a lottery so each successful applicant gets at least one lot.
In the retail category you are eligible for at most one lot, so extra lots in a single application do not raise your odds; separate PAN applications do.
SEBI requires a minimum of one lot per successful retail applicant, so when applications exceed available lots a computerised lottery picks the winners fairly.
No. Non-institutional (HNI) allotment is proportionate to the bid size, not a lottery — bigger valid bids get bigger allotments, subject to rounding.
On the registrar's website (Link Intime or KFintech), or on the BSE/NSE IPO allotment pages, using your PAN or application number once the basis is finalised.
The basis of allotment is typically finalised within 1 working day of issue close under SEBI's T+3 timeline, with listing on the 3rd working day.
Last updated: 14 Oct 2026, 01:29 IST